UK Will Be Worse Off After Leaving EU - Report
LONDON (Dispatches) - The UK will be worse off after Brexit regardless of the terms of its departure from the EU, according to a leaked Government impact assessment.
Economic analysis prepared by Whitehall officials for the Department for Exiting the EU (DexEU) concluded growth would decline in each of three possible scenarios it modelled.
Almost every sector of the economy and every region of the UK would negatively impacted, according to a leaked copy of the document seen by BuzzFeed News.
Even if the UK is able to negotiate a comprehensive free trade agreement, as Prime Minister Theresa May hopes, growth would be down five per cent over the next 15 years, the analysis said.
The loss would rise to eight per cent if Britain left without a deal and was forced to fall back on World Trade Organization (WTO) rules.
Alternatively, if the UK were to retain access to the single market through membership of the European Economic Area, growth would decline just two per cent.
The document was reportedly being presented to key Cabinet ministers in one-to-one meetings ahead of a Brexit sub-committee next week and was not intended to be made public.
The leaked findings are likely to infuriate pro-Brexit Tory MPs who already suspect the Government is heading for a "soft” break which will retain many of the existing elements of the relationship with Brussels.
A Government spokesman told Buzzfeed: "We have already set out that the Government is undertaking a wide range of ongoing analysis in support of our EU exit negotiations and preparations.
"We have been clear that we are not prepared to provide a running commentary on any aspect of this ongoing internal work and that ministers have a duty not to publish anything that could risk exposing our negotiation position.”
******An anti-Brexit protester demonstrates opposite the Houses of Parliament in London Jan. 16.
Economic analysis prepared by Whitehall officials for the Department for Exiting the EU (DexEU) concluded growth would decline in each of three possible scenarios it modelled.
Almost every sector of the economy and every region of the UK would negatively impacted, according to a leaked copy of the document seen by BuzzFeed News.
Even if the UK is able to negotiate a comprehensive free trade agreement, as Prime Minister Theresa May hopes, growth would be down five per cent over the next 15 years, the analysis said.
The loss would rise to eight per cent if Britain left without a deal and was forced to fall back on World Trade Organization (WTO) rules.
Alternatively, if the UK were to retain access to the single market through membership of the European Economic Area, growth would decline just two per cent.
The document was reportedly being presented to key Cabinet ministers in one-to-one meetings ahead of a Brexit sub-committee next week and was not intended to be made public.
The leaked findings are likely to infuriate pro-Brexit Tory MPs who already suspect the Government is heading for a "soft” break which will retain many of the existing elements of the relationship with Brussels.
A Government spokesman told Buzzfeed: "We have already set out that the Government is undertaking a wide range of ongoing analysis in support of our EU exit negotiations and preparations.
"We have been clear that we are not prepared to provide a running commentary on any aspect of this ongoing internal work and that ministers have a duty not to publish anything that could risk exposing our negotiation position.”
******An anti-Brexit protester demonstrates opposite the Houses of Parliament in London Jan. 16.