WASHINGTON -- Diesel prices in the United States and the European Union have surged to record highs as global supply disruptions tied to the war on Iran continue to strain markets, with analysts warning that the release of emergency reserves offers only temporary relief from a crisis rooted in war.

The G7 agreed on Friday to release up to 100 million barrels of diesel and crude oil from emergency reserves over four months, with a substantial portion of diesel to be made available within the first 20 days, according to a joint statement following a video conference of leaders. The release, coordinated by the International Energy Agency, will begin immediately.

The agreement came after the Trump administration pressured European allies to draw down their strategic diesel stocks, warning that failure to act could trigger a U.S. diesel export ban.

Washington had requested that the European Union release up to 120 million barrels of diesel over six months, according to sources familiar with the discussions. France and Germany together hold more than one-third of the EU's strategic diesel reserves.

U.S. average diesel prices reached $6.37 per gallon on October 2, according to AAA data, down slightly from a record $6.53 per gallon the previous week. Prices have risen approximately 70 percent since the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran began in late February.

The price surge has become a political liability for the Trump administration less than five weeks before the November midterm elections. A Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted September 17-20 found Trump's overall approval rating at 32 percent, with just 17 percent of Americans approving of his handling of the cost of living.

Trump said Friday that the U.S. would not impose a diesel export ban, telling reporters the plan was "never really on the table," despite having said several times in the preceding two weeks that such a ban was under consideration.

The average diesel price across the European Union hit a record €2.24 per liter, according to European Commission data published October 1. Twelve of the EU's 27 member states recorded new record levels, including Belgium, Italy, Poland, and Romania. Diesel exceeded €2.50 per liter in Denmark, the Netherlands, and Finland, while Germany reached €2.44.

The overall EU average stood at €1.59 per liter in February, before the U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran. The increase has cost European drivers approximately €203 million per day, according to an analysis of European Commission data.

The price surge stems from multiple supply shocks. Before the war, Persian Gulf states accounted for 19 percent of global diesel exports, with Russia holding 11 percent and North America 15 percent, according to commodity tracking firm Kpler.

By August, Persian Gulf diesel shipments had fallen to just one-quarter of pre-war levels. Russia's diesel exports dropped to approximately 20 percent of May levels following Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries.

The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a key artery for petroleum product exports from the Persian Gulf, has further constrained supply. Yemeni forces' blockade of Saudi exports in the Red Sea and Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil refineries have compounded the disruption.

Analysts have cautioned that releasing emergency reserves can only provide short-term relief. European refineries are already operating at near-maximum capacity, with OECD refining utilization exceeding 80 percent, processing approximately 11 million barrels per day, according to Wood Mackenzie.

"The release of diesel emergency reserves can lower retail prices within days, but can only bring short-term relief," according to an analysis by CCTV. "Any further release is merely buying time, because global diesel supply remains below global demand, and we are still drawing down inventories".

Wang Ruibin, director of the Institute of World Economics and Development at the China Institute of International Studies, told China National Radio that Europe faces an acute dilemma.

Commercial inventories in some parts of Europe have fallen to four-year lows, while Russia's broader fuel export ban will continue until January. Refinery maintenance, continued shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea, and peak winter heating demand will create a "stacking effect".

"If Europe releases 120 million barrels of diesel inventory over six months to ease retail pressure, it will pay the price in energy security," Wang said. France and Germany's combined diesel emergency reserves account for approximately 35 percent of the EU total.

Drawing them down now would leave those countries' inventory levels further strained—reserves that were meant as a last line of defense against genuine supply shocks.