LONDON — A new energy shock is spreading across the United States and Europe, with record diesel prices, surging natural gas costs and renewed inflation fears darkening the economic outlook as the Northern Hemisphere heads toward the colder months.
In the United States, the national average retail price of diesel reached a record $6.23 a gallon on Monday, according to market data reported by The Wall Street Journal, putting another heavy burden on trucking, agriculture, shipping and other industries dependent on diesel fuel. 
Diesel futures also rose sharply, signaling that the pressure on consumers and businesses may persist.
The increase has already begun working its way through the American economy. Diesel is the fuel of much of the country’s freight network, and higher transportation costs eventually feed into the prices of food, manufactured goods, deliveries and other everyday necessities. 
The national diesel average has risen from about $3.71 a year earlier to more than $6, according to Associated Press reporting.
The shock is particularly severe because it comes after months of already elevated prices. Gasoline has also risen sharply, while inflation remains above the Federal Reserve’s target. 
Economists surveyed by Reuters on Monday overwhelmingly expected the Fed to raise interest rates this week, reversing earlier expectations that policymakers could pause or even move toward easier monetary policy. 
Eighty-five percent of economists polled expected a quarter-point increase, with many anticipating at least one additional increase by March 2027.
That leaves the Federal Reserve confronting an increasingly unpleasant choice: allow an energy-driven inflation shock to become entrenched or raise borrowing costs further while higher fuel prices are simultaneously squeezing consumers and businesses.
The pressure is equally acute in Europe, where natural gas has become the most immediate source of concern ahead of winter. 
December gas futures have risen above €83 per megawatt-hour, exceeding the European Central Bank’s adverse scenario of €77, while Brent crude has climbed above $107 a barrel. 
ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel has warned that the latest movements in energy prices are deeply concerning because the shock can feed through into broader inflation.
The danger for Europe is particularly concentrated in the months ahead. Natural gas markets are entering the period when households, power generators and industry begin competing for additional supplies. 
The Financial Times reported Monday that international gas prices have surged to levels equivalent to oil at roughly $150 a barrel, with European prices being driven by relatively tight inventories, approaching winter demand and disruptions to liquefied natural gas flows through West Asia. 
European authorities insist the continent is better prepared than during the 2021-22 energy crisis. The European Commission said earlier this month that it saw no immediate threat to security of supply, citing greater LNG import capacity, diversified supplies and lower gas demand. 
But it also acknowledged that global energy markets remain exceptional, that geopolitical uncertainty is generating substantial price volatility and that Qatari LNG production remains shut down.
That official reassurance has done little to erase anxiety among consumers.
In France, households have already begun cutting discretionary spending as inflation and energy costs erode purchasing power. 
Reuters reported that consumers are splitting restaurant meals, skipping wine and starters and reducing nonessential purchases. 
More than half of respondents in a September Cofidis poll said they expected their purchasing power to deteriorate further. 
Disposable income fell 0.5% in the second quarter, while consumer spending has been supported partly by declining household savings.
Across the Atlantic, the same squeeze is becoming visible in household budgets. Analysts warn that expensive diesel does not stop at the gas station: it raises the cost of moving refrigerated food,