TEHRAN -- Former Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki warned Monday that the next 90 days will be decisive for the future of the region, saying the outcome of the ongoing war will determine the shape of the regional order.
Speaking at a conference on Iran’s role in rebuilding the regional order, with a focus on developments surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, Mottaki said the United States would seek to use four tactics — “limited war, ceasefire, blockade and negotiations” — to get through the next three months.
“The next 90 days are very important, and the future order of the region depends on the outcome of this war,” Mottaki said.
He stated that Washington’s strategy is aimed at managing the war until the November U.S. elections rather than implementing existing agreements.
“The Americans’ plan is not to implement the memorandum, but simply to engage us in negotiations so that they can achieve victory in their elections,” he said.
Mottaki stressed that Iran must not separate diplomacy from other elements of national power. “Nowhere in the world are the battlefield and diplomacy separated from each other,” he said. “The components of power are placed alongside one another.”
He warned that Tehran must be particularly careful not to repeat what he described as past negotiating mistakes. “We must make sure that this time we are not deceived,” Mottaki said.
Mottaki said Washington’s central
problem is not a shortage of weapons, troops or money, but what he described as a failure of political and strategic logic.
“Trump’s problem is not weapons, personnel, the exhaustion of forces on the USS Abraham Lincoln, or even money,” he said. “America ran out of logic.”
Referring to the U.S. experience in Afghanistan, he added: “The reason for America’s defeat in Afghanistan was not a lack of money or weapons; America ran out of logic.”
Mottaki stated that Washington believes its military power should automatically translate into acceptance of its political demands.
“They believe that because they have power and force, their logic must therefore be accepted,” he said. “They could not impose this on Iran and Afghanistan.”
He also said Trump’s calculations are increasingly tied to the November election, stating that a Republican defeat would represent a major political setback for Washington.
Mottaki dismissed claims that a ground war is imminent, saying those suggesting such a scenario are bluffing.
“Those who say a ground war is coming are bluffing,” he said, while warning of the consequences if such an offensive are actually launched.
“A ground war means that we seize one of America’s bases in Iraq, Kuwait or Bahrain,” Mottaki said. “In that case, we would have taken the fate of the war with the largest imperialist army in the world into our hands and finalized it.”
He said the war has demonstrated that military pressure alone could not determine Iran’s political choices, emphasizing that Tehran must assess negotiations alongside developments on the battlefield.