TEHRAN -- The signing of the Mecca Joint 
Defense Pact by Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan marks a new step in the reshaping of West Asia’s security environment, following the U.S.-Israeli terrorist attack on Iran and growing doubts over Washington’s decades-long role as security guarantor for the southern Gulf states.
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, along with Pakistan’s army chief Field Marshal Asim Munir, signed the agreement at Al-Safa Palace in Mecca.
Under the published eight-article text, an armed attack against any of the three countries will be considered an attack against all of them, echoing Article 5 of the NATO treaty. However, the published document is only a summary and may not represent the full text of a mutual defense treaty. Article 5 itself does not require an automatic military response.
The pact brings together three of the Muslim world’s most significant military powers: nuclear-armed Pakistan, NATO member Turkey and Saudi Arabia, which has one of the region’s most capable air forces. The development is being viewed as unprecedented since the Baghdad Pact of the 1950s.
The agreement comes amid a wider regional realignment. The U.S.-Israeli war against Iran, and Iran’s retaliatory strikes against military and strategic targets in several southern Gulf states, have raised fresh questions over the ability or willingness of Washington to protect its regional partners.
The pact appears to be more than a temporary response to the current war. Saudi Arabia and Pakistan had already signed a separate mutual defense agreement in September 2025, shortly after an Israeli strike on Hamas representatives in Doha shook Persian Gulf confidence in the U.S. security umbrella.
Andreas Krieg, a professor at King’s College London, told the Financial Times that Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan are not seeking to replace the United States, but are building the capacity to protect themselves when Washington cannot or will not defend their interests.
Saudi Arabia is also seeking to diversify its defense partnerships. Unlike the UAE, which has developed close security ties with Israel, Riyadh has increasingly looked toward Muslim countries for additional security partners.
Officials from the three countries have sought to reassure regional rivals, particularly Iran, that the agreement is not directed against any specific country.
Erdogan described the pact as a “historic step” toward strengthening collective deterrence and said it would support regional peace and stability. He also said the agreement was open to other “brotherly” countries seeking stability.
Some analysts, however, see a message to Tehran in the timing of the agreement.
Omar Karim of the University of Birmingham told AFP that the alliance has a clear anti-Iranian dimension, while RUSI researcher Burcu Ozcelik argued that its purpose is more about balancing Iran and deterring Israel than preparing for direct confrontation.
The agreement has also raised concerns in India and Tel Aviv. New Delhi fears that Saudi investment combined with Turkish drone and missile technology could strengthen Pakistan’s military capabilities against India.
Former Indian foreign secretary Kanwal Sibal called the development negative for India and suggested New Delhi should strengthen ties with the UAE, Israel, Greece and Iran.
Israel is also watching the alliance closely, given its deteriorating relationship with Turkey and the combination of Pakistan’s nuclear capabilities, Turkey’s NATO military power and Saudi Arabia’s financial resources.
Danny Citrinowicz, a former head of the Iran desk in Israeli military intelligence, argued that Tehran may have more reason than Israel to monitor the pact closely, saying coordination among the three countries could alter a regional balance that had been moving in Iran’s favor.