TEHRAN/LONDON – Iran has used the weeks of ceasefire following the February–April war to reconstitute its missile forces and is now preparing for a possible resumption of war, with a revised military doctrine that envisions a “short but very intense” war involving hundreds of daily missile strikes against U.S. assets in the Persian Gulf and the potential closure of a second strategic waterway, according to U.S. intelligence assessments and regional security analysts.
The preparations come as President Donald Trump claimed on Monday that he had postponed a planned “very major attack” on Iran at the request of Persian Gulf Arab allies, while simultaneously ordering military commanders “to be prepared to go forward with a full, large scale assault of Iran, on a moment’s notice, in the event that an acceptable deal is not reached”.
Despite Trump’s thuggish boasts during the war that Iran’s military had been “shattered,” classified U.S. intelligence assessments compiled in early May tell a markedly different story. 
According to The New York Times, which cited people familiar with the findings, Iran has regained operational access to 30 of its 33 missile sites along the Strait of Hormuz—a 91 percent reconstitution rate for its most strategically critical infrastructure.
Nationwide, nearly 90 percent of Iran’s hardened underground missile storage and launch facilities are now partially or fully operational. These deeply buried complexes, some carved into mountain granite, were specifically engineered to survive aerial campaigns.
On stockpiles, Iran retains approximately 70 percent of the missile inventory and mobile launchers it held before the war began. Given that Tehran fired hundreds of missiles across 100 documented retaliatory waves during the war, the 70 percent retention figure suggests pre-war stockpiles were far larger than previously estimated, or that wartime production partially offset expenditure.
IRGC Aerospace Force Commander Brigadier General Majid Mousavi stated last month that Iran’s missile and drone replenishment rate during the ceasefire has outpaced pre-war production levels. On Saturday, he went further, publicly announcing that Iranian missiles and drones are locked on American targets and enemy vessels across the Persian Gulf, with forces on standby.
Iranian military thinking has fundamentally shifted since the first phase of the war, according to Hamidreza Azizi, an expert on Iranian security affairs at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, who was quoted in the Times report.
During the initial round of fighting from February 28 to April 7—triggered by U.S. and Israeli terrorist strikes —Tehran prepared for a prolonged confrontation of approximately three months. That assessment led Iranian commanders to deliberately limit their missile usage in the war’s first weeks, conserving stockpiles for sustained strikes over a longer period.
Now, according to Azizi, Iranian officials expect any renewed war to be “short and intense”—a rapid, overwhelming barrage designed to inflict maximum economic pain before the U.S. can bring its full firepower to bear.
In such a scenario, Iran is expected to launch dozens to hundreds of missiles per day at targets across the region.
American assets in Persian Gulf states are expected to be the primary targets of any renewed Iranian campaign in order to increase economic pressure on the Trump administration.
Tehran’s warning toward the UAE has intensified in recent weeks. Iranian officials and