LONDON (Dispatches) – Newly declassified British documents reveal that U.S. intelligence during the 1991 Persian Gulf War believed Israel might resort to using nuclear weapons against Iraq in response to Iraqi chemical or missile attacks.
On August 2, 1990, Iraq invaded Kuwait, prompting international condemnation and the formation of a coalition led by the United States. Operation Desert Storm began in January 1991 to expel Iraqi forces. Amid escalating tension, Iraq fired Scud missiles at coalition troops and Israel.
According to UK Cabinet Office files, President George H.W. Bush and British Prime Minister John Major discussed U.S. intelligence indicating that Iraq could deploy chemical weapons “quite soon” — potentially targeting Israel or Saudi Arabia. Vice President Dan Quayle told Major it was “certain” that Iraq would use chemical weapons.
Though Quayle reassured that an overwhelming conventional U.S. response was in place, he warned that if chemical weapons caused massive casualties in Israel, the Israeli retaliatory strike “could even be nuclear.” Major replied that Israel had been restrained “for the time being,” recognizing the potential consequences of escalation.
Egypt’s then-president Hosni Mubarak echoed concerns, warning that Saddam’s regime might use chemical weapons if cornered. Washington’s National Security Adviser Brent Scowcroft communicated Mubarak’s full support of U.S. policies, emphasizing the need for vigilance.
British intelligence expressed uncertainties over Iraq’s ability to deliver chemical weapons over long distances. Landing discussions between Major and Saudi King Fahd noted surprise Iraq hadn’t already used such weapons. Nonetheless, Major stressed coalition readiness to retaliate harshly, while expressing skepticism over Iraq’s biological weapon capabilities.
In Washington, Pentagon chief Moshe Arens of Israel signaled frustration and suggested Israel’s right to retaliate amid extensive damage from Iraqi missile attacks. Arens’s stance spurred speculation he sought increased U.S. military or financial backing.
Pro-Israel lobbying efforts sought classification of Israel as a “front-line state” eligible for financial assistance. Secretary of State James Baker supported those efforts, recognizing Israel’s suffering from the conflict.
Meanwhile, British and coalition forces boasted robust defensive systems. By late in the war, around 94 Patriot missile units were deployed across Israel — including 60 around Tel Aviv and 34 near Haifa — offering a strong deterrent to Iraqi threats.