ANAKARA (Middle East Eye) – The popularity of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his party has hit a two-year high following a huge boost in spending and steps that have benefited millions of voters ahead of elections due in May.
Multiple public and private polls reviewed by Middle East Eye indicate that public support for Erdogan has returned to February 2021 levels, well before the inflation shock - which was triggered by his unorthodox monetary policy - hit the country later that year.
Two large private polls conducted in January showed that 40-42 percent of respondents said they would vote for Erdogan in the upcoming elections, while his ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) and its coalition partner Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) together edged the same levels of support.
A public survey run by the Center for Social Impact Studies (Team) on 11-14 January, which included face-to-face interviews with 2,524 people in 16 provinces, put AKP at 37.5 percent and MHP at 6.5 percent, reaching 44 percent combined.
Team said in its report that the Erdogan-led People’s Alliance took a lead of 2.7 points, closing the gap from last year when the Nation Alliance, led by the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP), had a 5.6 point advantage.
Team research director Ulas Tol believes a significant jump for the ruling party was only natural, following Erdogan’s steps to assist the large numbers of people hurt by Turkey’s deteriorating economy.
“Because there was a slight recovery from the bottom of economic problems that led to the feeling that things are getting better,” Tol told MEE.
“The problems still continue, but the effects of the problems on voter sentiments have decreased because they got used to the crisis and the impact of the inflation is being felt less.
“Erdogan’s personal vote is on par with his coalition’s votes in our research.”
Analysts say Erdogan’s election spending has so far had a practical impact on people’s daily lives. With more than 50 percent of the Turkish public receiving a minimum wage, Erdogan hiked the minimum wage for the private sector by 94 percent in January 2023 year-on-year, while annual inflation slowed down and then stayed at around 64 percent.
A similar hike was made for the public sector, which has affected around five million people.