Advisor to EU’s Top Diplomat Mogherini:

U.S. Lacks Military Capability to Wage War on Iran

Date: 12 May 2019 - 21:17

News ID: ۶۵۸۹۲

Ottawa (CBC Radio) -- Tensions are rising between the U.S. and Iran. That's left the European Union scrambling to salvage the international agreement that's kept Iran from developing a nuclear bomb.
On Wednesday, Iran's president threatened to withdraw from parts of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), unless the Europeans can find a way to protect them from crippling U.S. sanctions.
Meanwhile, the Trump administration has added fresh sanctions and is deploying a carrier strike group to the Persian Gulf.
Nathalie Tocci is an adviser to the Federica Mogherini, the European Union's top diplomat. Tocci spoke with "As It Happens” host Carol Off from Rome. Here is part of their conversation.
*Ms. Tocci, how high are the stakes right now for those trying to de-escalate things between the United States and Iran?
Well, the stakes are sky-high — particularly for Europe, the European Union — for a number of reasons. I mean, clearly the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action — i.e. the Iranian nuclear deal — is a key element in the global nonproliferation regime, that obviously sets a precedent. It is a key element contributing to Middle East security, or at the very least not to exacerbate further Middle East insecurity.
And, then finally — and perhaps I would say even most importantly — it is a key case that ultimately proves that multilateralism, multilateral diplomacy and international law, actually deliver and still can deliver. And obviously, without these elements, we could not have a rules-based international system that we're all so attached.
*Okay. But it seems that the White House, and in particular U.S. National Security Adviser John Bolton, thinks that what they're doing — being tough with Iran, and imposing these sanctions increasing them — is working. They seem convinced that they are doing the right thing, and that you're not. What do you say to them?
Well, I would say that the point really here is that we have fundamentally different objectives. The objective of the European Union, as far as the JCPOA is concerned, is that of the containment of the Iranian nuclear program. And that is in-and-of-itself the aim. We do not have any hidden aims. The point of the Trump administration, first and foremost of which is John Bolton who you cite, is actually a fundamentally different aim: it's that of a regime collapse in Iran.
What is very clear is the fact that, in fact, some of the non-renewal of the sanctions waivers of the United States actually makes it impossible for Iran to comply with the JCPOA. Now as for the question, "Is the U.S. strategy aimed at a regime collapse in Iran actually delivering?" Well, frankly speaking, I don't see an Iranian regime on the verge of collapse. I didn't see Iran's strategy in the Middle East — Iranian foreign policy in the Middle East — actually having changed over the last year. It doesn't seem to me to be delivering at all.
*And some have gone further than you're saying, and say the objective of the United States and John Bolton is to start a war with Iran — that this escalation is hoping that the Iranians will make a bad move, and that it will justify some kind of a strike. Do you think that's possible?
I don't think it's possible, because to be honest, I don't think the United States has the military capability of actually conducting a war in Iran. I mean, they can certainly go to war. The point is that they want to win it. I mean, they haven't exactly been able to win a war in Iraq, and it's a country that is incomparably smaller and weaker. So I don't think that it is a realistic objective.