Businesses Seek Clarity on Iran Nuclear Deal

Date: 20 October 2017 - 21:53

News ID: ۴۵۴۹۹

PARIS/LONON (Reuters/Platts) -- French businesses and foreign and finance ministry officials will meet next week as they work together to understand better the consequences of U.S. President Donald Trump’s refusal to certify the 2015 Iran nuclear deal.
Multi-nationals Total and Peugeot are among the most high profile companies to have signed new deals since the accord that provided sanctions relief for Iran and dozens of smaller French firms have also moved in or are looking to tap the Iranian market.
According to an invitation sent to companies by the Medef business group, officials from the foreign ministry, finance ministry and France’s business office in Tehran will offer on Tuesday an "analysis of the consequences of the non-certification” by Trump of the accord.
European capitals are determined to keep alive an accord that offered Iran an economic lifeline and the Paris government wants to know how its companies might react to the U.S. move.
"We’re still assessing how firms are reacting to the Trump decision, but we are trying to not be overly alarmist with them,” said a French diplomatic source.
While Trump did not pull the United States out of the agreement, he gave the U.S. Congress 60 days to decide whether to re-impose economic sanctions on Tehran that were lifted under the pact agreed between Iran and six world powers.
Despite a long history of commercial, political and social links with Iran, France took one of the hardest lines of the six powers negotiating the nuclear agreement with Iran.
Since the deal was agreed, however, France has maneuvered to deepen economic ties with Tehran and has repeatedly said it believes Iran is fully implementing the nuclear accord.
According to a notice on the Medef website, the discussion points include an explanation on the next steps at the U.S. Congress, the position of the accord’s other signatories - Britain, France, Germany, Russia, China and the European Union - and the immediate consequences on companies already operating in Iran.

Oil Market Eyes U.S. Sanctions Threat
The oil and shipping markets remain in limbo as the world awaits action from U.S. Congress on sanctions targeting Iran, in the wake of Trump last week declaring Tehran noncompliant with the nuclear deal.
With the deal, called the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, still in place for now, Iran continues to sell and ship oil internationally.
Traders, brokers and shipowners say any reimposition of sanctions targeting Iran's oil sector might take months, if not a few years, to be fully implemented, as this would require consensus among U.S. policymakers as well as the skeptical international community, which has urged the U.S. not to jeopardize the JCPOA.
Even so, they are already eying potential consequences if the U.S. snaps back sanctions or imposes other measures that prompt Iran to withdraw from the agreement.
"There could be many marine insurers unwilling to cover any Iran-related vessels so we just might see buyers asking for less (term) barrels" going forward, said a crude trader at a Chinese company, who spoke on condition of anonymity.
S&P Global Platts trade flow software cFlow shows that Iran's crude and condensates exports are expected to average 2.256 million b/d in October.
That would be a significant fall from 2.52 million b/d in September, though much of this is due to unscheduled maintenance at the South Pars condensate field and increased internal consumption.
Sara Vakhshouri, an analyst with consultancy SVB Energy International who follows the country closely, said that Iran's state-owned National Iranian Oil Company does not appear to be making any preparations for sanctions to be snapped back.
With the EU still supporting the JCPOA, Iran is hoping for "minimal impact" from Trump's decertification, Vakhshouri said, but if Iran were to face new sanctions that are supported by international partners, it will have to become more creative in its approach to oil exports.
"(Iran) could use different tactics to sell its oil, ranging from discounting its crude oil, selling oil in local currencies, or ultimately doing oil-for-goods or services deals, like its agreement with Russia," said Vakshouri, a fellow at the Atlantic Council in Washington.
Russia and Iran have a deal in place for state-owned Russian company Promsyryoimport to buy up to 100,000 b/d from NIOC partly in exchange for goods, oil equipment and services for Iran. Russian energy minister Alexander Novak said October 4 that the deal could be implemented "within a month."
Saeid Khoshrou, NIOC's director of international affairs, said at the Platts Asia Pacific Petroleum Conference in Singapore late last month that Iran would "take the action as it is required" if the U.S. reimposes sanctions.
Previous sanctions, implemented by the US, the EU, the UK, France, Germany, China and Russia from 2012 until they were lifted in January 2016 with the signing of the JCPOA, had "made Iran stronger," Khoshrou said.
Iran's deputy oil minister for trade and international affairs, Amir Hussein Zamaninia, said Tuesday he sees "little or no implications on our future plans in the oil industry," from Trump's recent statements.