Analyst: Risk of Escalation Remains Despite Gaza Truce

Date: 11 October 2025 - 21:49

News ID: ۱۴۴۵۱۴

TEHRAN – Despite a fragile ceasefire in Gaza, hostilities between Iran, Israel, and the United States continue, with no comprehensive agreement in place to ensure lasting peace, Iranian officials and analysts warn.
Qassem Mohebali, former director-general for Middle East affairs at Iran’s Foreign Ministry, told IRNA that the current ceasefire largely results from American pressure rather than a genuine resolution to longstanding regional tensions.
He emphasized that a definitive agreement between Tehran, Washington, and Tel Aviv remains elusive, leaving the door open for further escalation.
“There is no comprehensive understanding to end the hostilities. Until such a deal is reached, the risk of renewed conflict remains very real,” Mohebali said.
He also pointed to internal political dynamics in Israeli occupied territories, suggesting that prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu could face domestic pressures leading him toward renewed military actions.
At the same time, Mohebali warned that the U.S. administration, under President Donald Trump’s influence, might use Israel as a tool to pursue its strategic objectives against Iran.
“The current cessation of fighting is not a true solution; it is a temporary and uncertain pause that may only delay further violence,” he added.
Iran maintains it seeks regional stability but insists that peace cannot be achieved without active diplomacy and serious negotiations. The absence of such dialogue, Mohebali said, makes any ceasefire fragile and short-lived.
The ongoing ceasefire follows months of intense war in Gaza but leaves unresolved critical issues including the blockade of the Gaza Strip, the release of prisoners, and the political future of Palestinian territories. These unresolved issues threaten to reignite tensions.
In addition to Gaza, Tehran highlights other regional hotspots — such as Israel’s actions in Lebanon and Yemen — as factors that could destabilize the fragile calm.
Mohebali stressed that the delicate ceasefire is a temporary pause rather than a permanent solution and urged for renewed and serious diplomatic efforts involving all key regional players.
“Until comprehensive negotiations address these core challenges, and until international actors engage meaningfully, the cycle of conflict will continue,” he said.