UN Envoy: Syria on ‘Knife-Edge’ Risking Libya-Style Collapse

Date: 11 October 2025 - 21:49

News ID: ۱۴۴۴۸۳

UNITED NATIONS (Dispatches) -- Geir Pedersen, the UN Special Envoy for Syria, has warned that Syria stands on a “knife-edge,” risking a fate similar to Libya if promised political reforms stall.
Syria is currently governed by Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a militant coalition affiliated with Al-Qaeda and Daesh. Abu Muhammad al-Jolani, a former commander linked to both al-Qaeda and Daesh, now leads HTS and effectively controls large parts of the country.
Pedersen emphasized the urgent need for what he terms a “course correction” by al-Jolani’s regime.
The Libyan war, which began during the 2011 Arab Spring, offers a cautionary example. Libya quickly descended into chaos after NATO-backed forces overthrew Muammar Gaddafi, resulting in a divided country controlled by rival administrations in the east and west.
Regional neighbors such as Turkey, Jordan, and Iraq remain wary of Syria devolving into a failed state. The instability would severely threaten security across borders.
However, the lack of political trust and common ground between HTS’s regime under al-Jolani and other Syrian communities poses a serious challenge to national unity and reconstruction efforts.
Tensions persist particularly with Syria’s Kurdish minority, which inhabits roughly 30% of the country’s northeast. Although a U.S.-brokered ceasefire recently halted clashes between Kurdish militants and HTS forces in Aleppo, integration of about 60,000 Kurdish fighters into the HTS-controlled military remains stalled.
Kurds were excluded from Syria’s first postwar parliamentary vote, with their allocated seats left vacant pending future elections. The Kurdish region is rich in oil and gas resources critical for rebuilding the war-torn country, whose reconstruction costs are estimated by the World Bank to range between $400 billion and $1 trillion.
Relations with the Druze minority, Syria’s second largest, have also deteriorated. Druze militias in the Sweida region have established parallel administrative and security structures, openly opposing al-Jolani’s regime after reported HTS support for Arab Bedouin tribes against the Druze. Calls for Druze autonomy have intensified, adding to the country’s divisions.
On Friday, the HTS interior ministry imposed curfews on parts of Dara’a province following deadly tribal clashes which killed three people and wounded others on Friday.
Clashes reportedly broke out in the city of Izra between two families, resulting in deaths and injuries.
Reports said a tight cordon had been imposed around the affected areas, as well as a temporary curfew.
Local activists said a man and his son were killed by gunfire while heading to Friday prayers, in what was described as retaliation for an old dispute. Another young man was also killed in the area.
The killings sparked violent clashes between two tribes in the city of Izra.
Al-Hourani added that another man was killed by unknown gunmen in a separate incident in the town of Nimr in the northern Dara’a countryside.
Most areas of Dara’a continue to be affected by the unregulated proliferation of weapons.