Iran Strikes Back – Oil Breaks $100
TEHRAN — Iran launched a sweeping wave of retaliation against U.S. military and maritime targets on Wednesday after Washington destroyed five Iranian oil tankers, widening the confrontation across West Asia and sending Brent crude above $100 a barrel for the first time since July.
The escalation marked a major new stage in the war. Iranian missiles pummeled a U.S.-used military base in Jordan, while the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps (IRGC) said its forces had targeted
two U.S. Navy destroyers, eight oil tankers and other vessels near the Strait of Hormuz.
The immediate consequence was felt far beyond the battlefield. Brent crude futures breached the psychologically important $100 threshold, reaching $100.95 before trading at $100.69, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate climbed above $95 a barrel.
Reuters said Brent had risen roughly 25% since early August as the conflict increasingly threatened regional supplies.
The surge came as the latest exchange of attacks intensified fears that the disruption of oil shipping through the Strait of Hormuz could become prolonged. The waterway normally carries a substantial share of global oil and gas supplies, but flows have fallen sharply as vessels avoid the area and military confrontation has spread across the Persian Gulf.
Reuters reported that recent flows through Hormuz had fallen below 2 million barrels per day, compared with much higher levels before the war, creating a growing supply impairment in an already strained market.
Iran’s IRGC Aerospace Force said it had launched a “massive missile barrage” against the U.S. Al-Azraq Airbase in Jordan in an operation it called “Punishment of the Aggressor.” It said solid- and liquid-fueled ballistic missiles targeted maintenance and repair hangars, aircraft preparation facilities and shelters for F-35, F-16 and F-15 fighter aircraft.
The IRGC said the attack inflicted heavy damage on U.S. forces at the base and described the operation as a direct response to American attacks on Iranian crude carriers.
Iran also announced attacks against the U.S. Navy destroyers DDG-119 and DDG-53, saying powerful ballistic missiles had caused significant damage.
The latest Iranian attacks followed a major American escalation of the maritime terrorism. U.S. Central Command said American forces had struck five Iranian crude-oil carriers after accusing the IRGC of attempting twice in two days to strike a U.S. Navy warship with ballistic missiles.
The vessels were identified as the M/T Kaviz, M/T Charminar, M/T Horizon 1 and M/T Riesco in the Gulf of Oman, and the M/T Derya near Iran’s Kharg Island.
Iran responded by expanding the maritime battlefield. The IRGC Navy said it had targeted two U.S. vessels, eight oil tankers and 10 ships for violating a prohibited and unsafe zone in the Strait of Hormuz.
“The Strait of Hormuz remains firmly under the surveillance and management of the capable and valiant IRGC Navy,” the force said.
The IRGC also warned tanker crews in Kuwait and Bahrain to leave their vessels, while announcing plans for a wider maritime restricted area extending from Chabahar into parts of the Gulf of Oman and Arabian Sea. The precise coordinates were to be announced, according to the IRGC statement.
The consequences for the global economy are already becoming visible.
The move above $100 is particularly significant because crude prices had already risen sharply before Wednesday. Reuters reported that Brent had climbed about 25% since early August, reflecting fading hopes for a permanent resolution to the six-month war and renewed fighting across the region.
Physical crude and refined fuel prices have also moved above the $100 threshold, while U.S. gasoline prices have risen to an average of about $4.22 a gallon and diesel has approached $6 a gallon, according to Reuters.
The danger is that the energy shock could feed directly into inflation. Higher crude prices raise the cost of gasoline, diesel, aviation fuel, shipping and industrial production, creating pressure throughout economies that were already attempting to contain inflation.
For central banks, the combination is particularly difficult. A prolonged oil shock can simultaneously weaken economic growth and push consumer prices higher, making it harder for policymakers to cut interest rates without risking another inflationary surge.
The crisis is also exposing the vulnerability of global energy markets to disruption in the Persian Gulf. Reuters reported that the war has already removed an estimated 10 million barrels per day from the market.
Alternative routes cannot easily compensate for a prolonged closure or severe restriction of Hormuz. The waterway is a critical artery for Persian Gulf producers, and the simultaneous deterioration of security in the Red Sea is adding another layer of risk to global shipping.
The escalation has also coincided with renewed attacks by Yemen’s forces against Saudi targets and energy infrastructure. That parallel war threatens to place additional pressure on both Persian Gulf and Red Sea shipping routes, increasing the possibility that the energy disruption will spread beyond the immediate U.S.-Iran confrontation.
The crossing of the $100 threshold is therefore more than a psychological milestone for financial markets. It is an indication that traders are increasingly pricing in the possibility that the conflict will continue to restrict energy supplies for an extended period.
Analysts have warned that further attacks on oil infrastructure, tankers or alternative shipping routes could push prices substantially higher. The longer the Strait of Hormuz remains impaired, the greater the pressure on producers, governments, consumers and central banks around the world.
Iran’s IRGC said its military operations will continue until U.S. aggression ceased. “This powerful battle will continue,” it said.