Oil Prices Surge Above $93 as Hormuz Traffic Collapses
LONDON (Dispatches) — Oil prices climbed sharply on Tuesday as renewed U.S.-Iran fighting revived fears of a prolonged disruption to crude supplies, while vessel-tracking data from Kpler showed commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remaining at exceptionally low levels.
Brent crude futures rose as much as 3.8% to $93.93 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude
gained 4.3% to $89.48, putting both benchmarks at one-week highs. The rise followed fresh U.S. strikes on Iranian targets and reports that two tankers carrying Saudi crude had come under attack while transiting the Strait of Hormuz.
According to preliminary Kpler data cited by Reuters, only five vessels passed through the Strait of Hormuz on Monday, four entering and one leaving, compared with a 10-day average of about 14. More significantly for energy markets, none of the five was a liquid tanker. The vessels included an empty gas tanker and three laden dry-bulk carriers.
The figures follow a much broader collapse in traffic documented by Kpler since the resumption of conflict. In a July 23 assessment, the commodities-data company said average daily crossings had fallen from roughly 45 during the temporary truce to about 13 after fighting resumed — a decline of around 70%. On July 21, Kpler recorded only nine crossings.
The pattern has since deteriorated further. Kpler said in an August assessment that traffic remained in the single digits.
Kpler’s latest methodological analysis says its estimates should be understood as confirmed floors, since dark vessel movements, satellite coverage gaps and delayed confirmation can cause the newest figures to be revised upward. The company distinguishes between confirmed Strait transits, total Hormuz clearance that includes Gulf of Oman net exports, and a broader regional measure incorporating bypass routes.
Reuters, citing Kpler, reported that the company tracked only 2.3 million bpd of crude exports through the Strait of Hormuz in August, compared with 4.49 million bpd in July and 15.82 million bpd in the three months before the February 28 attacks. Asian crude imports also remained depressed, averaging an estimated 23.12 million bpd in August, about 14% below the pre-conflict three-month average.
According to preliminary Kpler data cited by Reuters, only five vessels passed through the Strait of Hormuz on Monday, four entering and one leaving, compared with a 10-day average of about 14. More significantly for energy markets, none of the five was a liquid tanker. The vessels included an empty gas tanker and three laden dry-bulk carriers.
The figures follow a much broader collapse in traffic documented by Kpler since the resumption of conflict. In a July 23 assessment, the commodities-data company said average daily crossings had fallen from roughly 45 during the temporary truce to about 13 after fighting resumed — a decline of around 70%. On July 21, Kpler recorded only nine crossings.
The pattern has since deteriorated further. Kpler said in an August assessment that traffic remained in the single digits.
Kpler’s latest methodological analysis says its estimates should be understood as confirmed floors, since dark vessel movements, satellite coverage gaps and delayed confirmation can cause the newest figures to be revised upward. The company distinguishes between confirmed Strait transits, total Hormuz clearance that includes Gulf of Oman net exports, and a broader regional measure incorporating bypass routes.
Reuters, citing Kpler, reported that the company tracked only 2.3 million bpd of crude exports through the Strait of Hormuz in August, compared with 4.49 million bpd in July and 15.82 million bpd in the three months before the February 28 attacks. Asian crude imports also remained depressed, averaging an estimated 23.12 million bpd in August, about 14% below the pre-conflict three-month average.