GENEVA (AP) – A powerful El Nino weather event could push an additional nearly 49 million people into acute food insecurity across some of the world’s most vulnerable regions by the end of next year, the World Food Program said on Wednesday.
The UN agency said in a report that there was an 81 percent chance of a very strong El Nino event, with sea surface temperatures at their warmest levels since at least 1982 and potentially making it the strongest such event since 1950.
El Nino, a periodic warming of ocean surface temperatures in the Pacific, alters global weather patterns and is often associated with drought in Southern Africa, delayed monsoons in parts of Asia and erratic rainfall elsewhere.
“These are events that in the past have triggered large-scale hunger,” Jean-Martin Bauer, director of WFP’s Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Service, told reporters.
Based on an analysis of 45 countries deemed vulnerable to the adverse effects of El Nino, WFP estimates that the number of people facing acute food insecurity could rise by almost 49 million to a total of 274 million people, an increase of 22 percent, relative to the baseline population already experiencing crisis-level food insecurity or worse.
Central America and Southern Africa are expected to be among the hardest-hit regions, with the number of food-insecure people set to increase by 83 percent in Central America and nearly 75 percent in Southern Africa, the WFP report said.
Southern Africa as well as South America and the Caribbean could each see more than 12 million additional people fall into acute food insecurity.
Bauer said global food markets entered the El Nino period in a relatively strong position following good harvests in 2025, but warned that conflict in the Middle East and potential weather-related crop losses could put further upward pressure on prices.
While past El Nino events have not typically triggered major global food price spikes, regional shortages and higher prices could worsen food access for vulnerable households, he said.