KABUL (Dispatches) — Afghanistan’s decision to ban opium poppy cultivation sharply reduced the area under cultivation, but the move has not delivered the expected collapse in global heroin supplies, with large stockpiles and changing trafficking patterns continuing to support the illicit market.
In April 2022, Taliban leader Mullah Haibatullah Akhundzada announced a nationwide ban on opium poppy farming, seeking to eliminate a crop that had been central to Afghanistan’s rural economy for decades. 
The measure triggered a dramatic decline in cultivation, with the area planted with poppies falling by about 95% in 2023 compared with the previous year, according to the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC).
Before the ban, Afghanistan accounted for an estimated 80% to 90% of global opium production and supplied the vast majority of heroin consumed in Europe. But analysts say the sharp decline in cultivation has not translated into an immediate shortage of heroin, largely because existing reserves have continued to feed the market.
A technical report commissioned by the European Union Drugs Agency and based on research by Afghanistan drug economy specialist David Mansfield and satellite analysis firm Alcis found that the timing of the ban played a crucial role. 
The decree was issued shortly before the 2022 harvest, allowing farmers to collect crops already planted months earlier. That harvest became one of Afghanistan’s largest on record despite the announced restrictions.
The ban also caused opium prices to surge, rising from roughly $60-$75 per kilogram before the Taliban takeover to more than $1,000 per kilogram by late 2023. Farmers who had the ability to store their harvests had an incentive to hold supplies back rather than sell immediately, anticipating higher prices.
Researchers estimate Afghan farmers may have accumulated more than 16,000 tonnes of opium stocks between 2019 and 2022, creating a reserve capable of sustaining production and trafficking networks for years. 
Such stockpiles help explain why opium and heroin markets inside Afghanistan and along regional borders have continued despite the cultivation ban.
The impact of the ban has also varied across Afghanistan. In Badakhshan province, where Taliban authority has historically been weaker, poppy cultivation has continued. Attempts at tougher eradication efforts in 2024 faced local resistance, forcing authorities to reduce enforcement.
Experts warn that the biggest risk may not be a heroin shortage but changes in the composition of the drug supply. Rising opium prices have increased pressure to improve processing efficiency and dilute finished products with cheaper substances. 
Reports from regional markets indicate growing adulteration of heroin, with mixtures of caffeine, paracetamol and unidentified powders used to increase profits.
The shift has raised concerns about the emergence of more dangerous synthetic opioids, including nitazenes, which can be far more potent than heroin. International agencies have warned that these substances could expand as criminal networks seek alternatives to traditional opiate supplies.