LONDON (Dispatches) -- The ongoing U.S.-Israeli war of aggression against Iran has plunged Europe into a full-blown energy crisis, with the continent facing its most severe supply challenges since the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine. 
The war, now entering its fifth month, has disrupted vital energy routes through the Strait of Hormuz—through which approximately one-fifth of global liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply passed before the war—leaving European governments scrambling to secure alternative supplies ahead of winter.
The European Union has already spent an additional €27 billion on fossil fuel imports since the war began on February 28, according to European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. 
This staggering figure comes “without receiving a single additional molecule of energy,” the commission noted, as higher prices alone account for the massive increase in costs. The Jacques Delors Institute estimates the total additional cost to Europe now exceeds €39 billion.
European gas storage facilities are currently only 54% full, compared with 64% at the same point last year. According to consultancy Wood Mackenzie, Europe is on track to enter winter with its lowest gas storage levels in at least 15 years—projected at just 76% of capacity by November, a level not seen since at least 2011. 
The Financial Times reports that this severe shortage is driven entirely by the fallout from the U.S.-Israeli war, which has halted LNG supplies through the Strait of Hormuz and reduced production in Qatar and the UAE.
European gas prices have surged more than 70% since the war began. The benchmark TTF averaged nearly $16 per million British thermal units in the second quarter, up 32% from a year earlier, while Asian Platts JKM averaged $17.5/MMBtu, up 45% year-on-year. 
In recent weeks, prices spiked to four-month highs above €60 per megawatt-hour as fears of winter shortages gripped markets.
The war has severely damaged Qatar’s LNG export capacity. QatarEnergy estimates repairs to the two LNG units will sideline about 12.8 million tonnes per year of capacity for three to five years, while the Pearl GTL Train 2 is expected to require a year-long outage.
Approximately 17% of Qatar’s LNG export capacity has been wiped out. LNG exports from Qatar and the UAE dropped by 35 billion cubic meters
 year-on-year between March and June.
European governments have spent €9 billion on untargeted energy subsidies since the war began, according to the Jacques Delors Institute, with 21 of 22 EU countries activating “broad support measures” rather than “targeted assistance”. This approach, the think tank warns, “suppresses demand signals, creating the conditions for shortages” and risks entrenching “fossil fuel subsidies”.
Analysts at Chatham House argue the war has permanently reconfigured the global LNG market in ways unfavorable to Europe’s energy security. Europe’s reliance on U.S. LNG has grown to 63% of its LNG imports in early 2026, up from just 28% in 2021. 
This dependency exposes Europe to potential coercion by Washington, which has made clear its intention to use energy exports for geopolitical leverage.
“The question is no longer whether the LNG market is tight, which it clearly is,” said Florence Schmit, senior energy strategist at Rabobank. “The question is how tight it becomes.”