TEHRAN – A routine missile exercise by the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) has drawn sharp warnings from Israeli officials, highlighting Israel’s heightened sensitivity to Iranian defense maneuvers and its tendency to escalate routine actions into perceived threats.
According to Israeli and American sources cited by Axios, Israeli officials over the weekend contacted the Trump administration to warn that the missile drill could mask preparations for an attack on the occupied territories, despite U.S. intelligence reporting no indications of imminent action.
Israeli military chief of staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir phoned U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) Commander Adm. Brad Cooper to press concerns over the IRGC exercise, which had begun several days earlier. 
“The chances for an Iranian attack are less than 50%, but nobody is willing to take the risk and just say it is only an exercise,” an Israeli source told Axios, reflecting a pattern of alarmism that amplifies routine Iranian defensive actions into a justification for heightened U.S.-Israeli coordination. Cooper subsequently traveled to Tel Aviv to meet with Zamir and other senior officials.
Axios reported that Israeli intelligence had raised similar concerns six weeks ago after observing Iranian missile movements—concerns that ultimately proved unfounded. Despite this, the regime continues to portray Iranian defensive exercises as potential threats, reinforcing a climate of fear that could increase the risk of miscalculation.
Israeli officials cited Iran’s ongoing efforts to rebuild missile capabilities after the June war. The Israeli approach has also prompted broader U.S.-Israeli coordination. Zamir reportedly urged close operational planning with Washington, despite no signs of imminent Iranian operation. Analysts warn that such escalatory framing, coupled with Israel’s repeated emphasis on worst-case scenarios, could increase the risk of conflict stemming from misinterpretation or preemptive responses.
The IRGC, meanwhile, has emphasized its defensive posture. Brig. Gen. Ali Mohammad Naeini, an IRGC spokesman, said Iran possesses a comprehensive intelligence database enabling precise retaliation against Israeli targets during the June conflict, ensuring no missiles went astray. 
“Iranian strikes destroyed dozens of strategic Israeli centers and key infrastructure,” Naeini said, asserting that roughly 80% of operations relied on intelligence gathered well before the conflict.
Despite repeated routine exercises by Iranian forces, Israel has consistently portrayed them as potential attacks, raising questions about the regime’s risk management and political motivations.
Observers note that Israel’s heightened alarmism may serve to justify military escalation and secure continued U.S. involvement in regional conflicts, placing both nations at greater risk of unnecessary confrontation.
Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu is scheduled to meet President Trump on Dec. 29 in Miami to discuss Iran’s missile developments and potential military action in 2026, according to Israeli sources, reinforcing the regime’s persistent framing of Iranian defensive actions as existential threats.
The pattern of exaggerating routine Iranian drills underscores a broader trend: Israel’s propensity to interpret defensive measures as offensive threats, heightening regional tensions and placing the U.S. in repeated cycles of military and political engagement.