LONDON (Guardian) -- Superbugs could cause millions more people to die worldwide and cost the global economy just under $2 trillion a year by 2050, modeling shows.
A UK government-funded study shows that without concerted action, increased rates of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) could lead to global annual GDP losses of $1.7 trillion over the next quarter of a century.
The research, by the Center for Global Development think tank, found the U.S., UK and EU economies would be among the hardest hit, prompting accusations that recent swinging aid cuts are self-defeating.
On Thursday, the UK government announced it was axing funding for the Fleming fund, which combats AMR in low- and middle-income countries, as part of wider aid cuts. The Trump administration has confirmed $9 billion in cuts to its foreign aid budget, while a number of European countries have also reduced spending on overseas aid.
Anthony McDonnell, the lead author of the research and a policy fellow at the Center for Global Development, said: “When we conducted our research on the economic impacts of antimicrobial resistance, it was anticipated that resistance rates would continue to follow historical trends.
“However, the sudden cuts to Official Development Assistance by the U.S., which has cut its aid spend by roughly 80%; the UK, which has announced aid cuts from 0.5% to 0.3% of gross national income; and substantial reductions by France, Germany, and others, could drive up resistance rates in line with the most pessimistic scenario in our research.
“Even countries that have been successful in keeping AMR rates under control cannot afford to be complacent. Unless AMR programs are protected from aid cuts, resistance rates across the world will likely increase at a rate in line with the worst-affected countries.
“This would result in millions more people dying worldwide, including across G7 nations. Investing in treatment for bacterial infections now will save lives and deliver billions in long-term economic returns.”
The research calculated the economic and health burden of antibiotic resistance for 122 countries and forecast that in that in this most pessimistic scenario, by 2050, GDP losses in China could reach just under $722 billion a year, the U.S. $295.7 billion, the EU $187 billion, Japan $65.7 billion and the UK $58.6 billion.