FRANKFURT, Germany (AP) – The European Union expects to find out on Monday whether President Donald Trump will impose punishing tariffs on America’s largest trade partner in a move economists have warned would have repercussions for companies and consumers on both sides of the Atlantic.
Trump imposed a 20% import tax on all EU-made products in early April as part of a set of tariffs targeting countries with which the United States has a trade imbalance. Hours after the nation-specific duties took effect, he put them on hold until July 9 at a standard rate of 10% to quiet financial markets and allow time for negotiations.
Expressing displeasure the EU’s stance in trade talks, however, Trump said he would increase the tariff rate for European exports to 50%, which could make everything — from French cheese and Italian leather goods to German electronics and Spanish pharmaceuticals — much more expensive in the U.S.
The EU’s executive commission, which handles trade issues for the bloc’s 27-member nations, said its leaders hope to strike a deal with the Trump administration. Without one, the EU said it was prepared to retaliate with tariffs on hundreds of American products, ranging from beef and auto parts to beer and Boeing airplanes.
The EU’s executive commission describes the trade between the U.S. and the EU as “the most important commercial relationship in the world.”
The value of EU-U.S. trade in goods and services amounted to 1.7 trillion euros ($2 trillion) in 2024, or an average of 4.6 billion euros a day, according to EU statistics agency Eurostat.
The biggest U.S. export to Europe is crude oil, followed by pharmaceuticals, aircraft, automobiles, and medical and diagnostic equipment.
Europe’s biggest exports to the U.S. are pharmaceuticals, cars, aircraft, chemicals, medical instruments, and wine and spirits.
Trump has complained about the EU’s 198 billion-euro trade surplus in goods, which shows Americans buy more stuff from European businesses than the other way around.
However, American companies fill some of the gap by outselling the EU when it comes to services such as cloud computing, travel bookings, and legal and financial services.
The U.S. services surplus took the nation’s trade deficit with the EU down to 50 billion euros ($59 billion), which represents less than 3% of overall U.S.-EU trade.
Before Trump returned to office, the U.S. and the EU maintained a generally cooperative trade relationship and low tariff levels on both sides. The U.S. rate averaged 1.47% for European goods, while the EU’s averaged 1.35% for American products.
But the White House has taken a much less friendly posture toward the longstanding U.S. ally since February. Along with the fluctuating tariff rate on European goods Trump has floated, the EU has been subject to his administration’s 50% tariff on steel and aluminum and a 25% tax on imported automobiles and parts.