BUCHAREST (AFP) -- Far-right candidate Calin Georgescu surged unexpectedly in Romania’s presidential election, pulling ahead of the pro-European prime minister with more than 98 percent of votes counted Monday and looking all but certain to advance to a runoff.
Exit polls had initially showed center-left Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu with a comfortable lead and put a center-right candidate in second, suggesting the far-right would be shut out of the run-off next month.
But with 98.66 percent of ballots counted, the pro-Russian Georgescu was leading with 22.59 percent to Ciolacu’s 19.55 percent in the race to take over from President Klaus Iohannis in the largely ceremonial post.
In the absence of an outright winner in the first round -- scoring more than 50 percent -- the top two candidates go through to a second round on December 8.
Whatever the outcome, “the far right is by far the big winner of this election”, political scientist Cristian Pirvulescu told AFP.
Another nationalist candidate, George Simion, is currently running fourth, putting the far-right on track to take about a third of the vote. 
The result would be a political earthquake in the country of 19 million, a NATO member which has so far resisted nationalist posturing, setting itself apart from Hungary and Slovakia.
Ciolacu’s Social Democrat party has shaped Romania’s politics for more than three decades, and as he voted Sunday he promised stability and a “decent” standard of living.
But with concerns mounting over inflation and the war in neighboring Ukraine, the far-right appeared to be gaining ground ahead of the vote. 
Georgescu surged in recent days with a viral TikTok campaign calling for an end to aid for Ukraine. He has also sounded a skeptical note on Romania’s NATO membership. 
“Tonight, the Romanian people cried out for peace. And they shouted very loudly, extremely loudly”, he said.
Simion had also tapped into voter anger over inflation while promising more affordable housing.
Looking for a new election breakthrough for European far-right parties, he had warned of possible “fraud” and “foreign interference” when voting.
The stakes are high for Romania, which has a 650-kilometre (400-mile) border with Ukraine and has become more important since Russia invaded its neighbor in 2022.
The Black Sea nation now plays a “vital strategic role” for NATO -- as it is a base for more than 5,000 soldiers -- and the transit of Ukrainian grain, the New Strategy Center think tank said.