TEHRAN – Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi says has warned the U.S. against resuming its “maximum pressure” campaign against Tehran, saying it is doomed to failure.
The first version of the American policy was met with “Maximum Resistance” from Tehran, resulting in Washington’s “Maximum Defeat,” Araghchi wrote in a post on X.
“Attempting ‘Maximum Pressure 2.0’ will only result in ‘Maximum Defeat 2.0’. Better idea: try ‘Maximum Wisdom’—for the benefit of all,” he added.
His remarks came amid speculation that U.S. President-elect Donald Trump may reinstate the policy which he adopted in his first term after leaving an international nuclear agreement with Iran.
Araghchi on Wednesday underlined the need for strategies to reduce the cost of Iran’s standoff with the United States.
He said the channels of communication between the two countries have always been there but some of the differences with the U.S. are “very substantive and fundamental.”
“We have to manage so that the cost of Iran’s differences with the United States is reduced,” he said on the sidelines of a cabinet meeting.
Trump himself sounded contrite at an event for the New York Economic Club in September, where he fielded questions about his future plans, saying he would use sanctions as little as possible and singling out Russia and Iran.
“The problem with what we have with sanctions, and I was using the sanctions, but I put them on and take them off as quickly as possible, because ultimately it kills your dollar and it kills everything the dollar represents.
“If we lost and we lost the dollar as much as the world currency, I think that would be the equivalent of losing a war. That would make us a third-world country. We can’t let it happen.
“So I use sanctions very powerfully against countries that deserve it. And then I take them off because, look, you’re losing Iran. You’re losing Russia.
“So I want to use sanctions as little as possible,” Trump said.
Analysts say a Trump administration return to a maximum-pressure campaign on Iran would mean tougher enforcement of US oil sanctions, but it could struggle to get China as Iran’s top crude customer to cooperate.
China, they say, could retaliate by strengthening work in the BRICS club of emerging economies, consisting of Iran, Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa and others, including by reducing reliance on the dollar in deals in oil and other goods.
China, Russia and Iran have built a trading system that uses mostly national currencies in trade, avoiding the dollar and exposure to U.S. regulators, making sanctions enforcement tough.
When Trump imposed sanctions during his first term, Iran was an observer member of BRICS. Now, it is a full member of the expanding strategic and economic coalition, which has given it diverse means of trade and ways
to effectively fend off any hostile measure.
In the Persian Gulf region, Saudi Arabia and the UAE have signaled they remain committed to de-escalation with Iran as they prepare for the return of Trump.
Leaders like Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Muhammed bin Salman were among Trump’s most enthusiastic Arab backers during his first term as U.S. president.
But in the years since, the Persian Gulf’s two powerhouses — Saudi Arabia and the UAE — have changed tack, seeking to engage with Tehran. This became more evident during the occupying regime of Israel’s aerial aggression against Iran, with both Riyadh and Abu Dhabi ruling out any role in the adventurist move.
Persian Gulf leaders, who traditionally prefer a Republican presidency, have welcomed Trump’s re-election. But diplomats and people close to regional governments say they are also wary he could give Zionist prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu more license to escalate tensions with Iran.
In a sign of Riyadh’s desire to maintain its rapprochement with Iran, Prince Muhammad on Monday hosted senior Iranian officials at an Arab-Muslim conference in Jeddah in which he lashed out at Israel for committing genocide in Gaza. He also condemned Israel’s strikes on Iran, calling on the international community to stop hostile actions on Iranian territory.
Separately, Anwar Gargash, the UAE’s presidential adviser, told a conference in Abu Dhabi on Monday that the incoming Trump administration must pursue a “comprehensive” approach instead of “reactive and piecemeal” policies.
The comments underlined the shift in Saudi and Emirati thinking since they actively courted Trump after he took office in 2017.
Both Riyadh and Abu Dhabi cheered the Trump administration’s hawkish stance on Iran, his decision to abandon the 2015 nuclear deal between Tehran and six countries and to impose draconian sanctions on the Islamic Republic.
But as Trump’s “maximum pressure” campaign sent tension soaring across the region, they became aware of their own vulnerability to Iranian retribution.
Giorgio Cafiero, chief executive of Washington-based Persian Gulf State Analytics, said that by the time Trump’s first term ended, regional leaders “realized that in practice [it] had not succeeded in making the Persian Gulf Arab monarchies more secure”.
With confidence in the U.S. security umbrella undermined, Saudi and the UAE decided de-escalation with Iran was the best bet to protect their states and allow them to focus on economic diversification.
This culminated in a China-brokered agreement in March 2023 that re-established diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran after a seven-year rift. Persian Gulf leaders’ concern now is that an even broader conflagration in the Middle East could undermine their domestic development plans.
“The deal supported by China is for the good of the region,” said a person familiar with the Saudi government’s thinking. “Saudi Arabia will remain committed to it as long as [Iran is] committed.”
Fayyad al-Ruwaili, chief of staff of the Saudi armed forces, was on Sunday with his Iranian counterpart Muhammad Bagheri in Tehran to discuss defense cooperation as part of the Beijing agreement, the kingdom’s Ministry of Defense said.
The kingdom “believes the focus should be on economic development and the success of its vision, which ultimately will offer the region a vision for a way forward beyond conflict, a vision that should benefit everybody.”