KYIV (Guardian) -- Ukraine’s military intelligence has claimed that Russia is set to order the mobilization of as many as 500,000 conscripts in January in addition to the 300,000 it called up in October, in another apparent sign that Vladimir Putin has no intention of ending the war.
Vadym Skibitsky, Ukraine’s deputy military intelligence chief, said Ukraine believed the conscripts would be part of a string of Russian offensives over the spring and summer in the east and south of the country.
Russia has denied it is preparing a second wave of mobilization, with Putin saying last month it was “pointless” to talk about a new call-up, claiming that only half of those already mobilized had been sent to Ukraine.
Russian officials, including Putin, previously denied plans to order a mobilization before eventually declaring a “partial mobilization” in September.
Ukraine’s warning of a new mobilization comes as Russia claims to have adhered to its unilateral ceasefire on Orthodox Christmas.
The Ukrainian estimate of troops set to be mobilized is higher than that in September, which proved widely unpopular and set off protests across Russia.
If the estimate proves correct, Russia will have almost doubled its prewar force in the space of a few months. Ukraine’s military intelligence said 280,000 Russian ground troops were currently deployed against Ukraine.
In the summer, Ukraine’s national security chief, Oleksii Danilov, said a million Ukrainians were gaining combat experience, although it is probable only a minority of this number are on active duty.
Skibitsky said it would take Russia approximately two months to put together the military formations and any Russian success on the battlefield would depend on how well equipped and trained the Russians are. Much will also depend, he said, on the continued supply of western ammunition and weaponry to Ukraine in order to equip the new reserve units Ukraine is preparing.
“If Russia loses this time around, then Putin will collapse,” said Skibitsky, describing the upcoming six to eight months as the last push.
He said Ukraine expected the latest wave of mobilization to be announced on January 15, after Russia’s winter holiday period. “They are putting their emphasis on numbers of men and equipment and hoping to overwhelm our side.”
Andrey Gurulyov, a retired Russian colonel general and Duma deputy, said on Wednesday there were “no reasons or conditions” for Moscow to announce a second mobilization in the next six months.
“Not everyone who was mobilized earlier has been sent to the battle,” Gurulyov told Russia media, referring to the tens of thousands of conscripts undergoing military training.
Contradicting the official line, several pro-war nationalist bloggers who have gained influence in recent months have said Russia had no choice but to soon announce a new mobilization drive.
Igor Strelkov, a Russian ultra-nationalist commentator and former intelligence officer, predicted Moscow would announce a mobilization next month.
“There will be a second wave of mobilization. We will be forced to carry out the second, and maybe the third wave. To win in Ukraine, we will need to call up at least another half a million soldiers,” Strelkov said, adding that the new mobilization drive would be held in late February, on the anniversary of the start of the war.
“We expect them to conduct offensives in Donetsk and Kharkiv regions, as well as possibly Zaporizhzhia but to defend in Kherson and Crimea. This is the number of men they will need for such a task,” said Skibitsky, explaining why they expect half a million to be mobilized.
In December, Ukraine’s minister of defense, Oleksii Reznikov, and army commander, Valeriy Zaluzhnyi, said Russia would attack from Belarus again this coming February. Conversely, Ukraine’s military intelligence said they believed the possibility of an attack from Belarus was low.
According to Skibitsky, Russia only has one division – of about 15,000 personnel – in Belarus. In February last year, it had 45,000 and was unsuccessful in taking Kyiv, even though Ukraine was underprepared, he said.
Now, Ukraine’s northern defensive positions are strong and Ukraine was ready, said Skibitsky. The Guardian spent New Year’s Eve on the border in Ukraine’s north-eastern Sumy region where the local defense forces expressed the same opinion.

“Of course, this could change if Belarus joins the war,” said Skibitsky. Belarus has a force of about 45,000.
But even if Russia has the numbers, said the U.S. military expert Rob Lee, it does not automatically mean that its units will be effective – leadership, ammunition and training are problems right now in the Russian army.
It remains an open question as to how well Russia can integrate the newly mobilized forces as there has not been a comparative war in recent times, said Lee.
“If you mobilize 500,000 guys those problems don’t go away, you just kind of have similar issues with just more manpower,” said Lee, noting that less well-trained troops were better for defending territory than offensive operations.
Russia has also recruited tens of thousands of prisoners to fight as part of the private military group Wagner.
On Thursday, the first inmates drafted by Wagner received their promised pardons after fighting for six months in Ukraine.