LONDON (Dispatches) -- The drought scorching much of the European Union is set to be the worst endured since the sixteenth century, a senior scientist at the European Commission’s (EC) drought service has warned.
Sixty-three percent of land in the European Union and United Kingdom -- an area nearly the same size as India -- is now under either drought warnings or alerts, according to data published by the European Drought Observatory on Wednesday.
“At the moment... this seems to be the worst” year in 500 years, although a full analysis will need to happen retrospectively, said Andrea Toreti, senior researcher at the EC’s Joint Research Centre, who compiles data for the European Drought Observatory.
“We haven’t analyzed fully the event, but based on my experience I think that this is perhaps even more extreme than in 2018,” he said, responding to a question from Sky News during a briefing.
“2018 was so extreme that looking back at this list of the last 500 years, there were no other events similar,” due to the compounding hot and dry weather, explained Toreti, who published a study on historical droughts a year after the event four years ago.
That year, particularly dry and hot weather left central and northern Europe with yields of key crops up to 50% lower, but “favorable” wet conditions in southern Europe saw harvests shoot up.
The extremely rare “seesaw” effect buffered the bloc from the impacts of the regional drought by preventing higher volatility and price spikes.
This year “on the contrary, most of Europe” is exposed to compounding heatwaves and dry weather, he said, as droughts impact food and energy production, drinking water and wildlife. “This year is really exceptional,” he added.
The latest data from the EDO shows some 47% of the bloc’s territory under “warning” conditions, the second of three drought categories, during the 10 days leading to July 30.
More worrying is the 17% of land that has moved into the most severe “alert” state, meaning not only is the soil drying out after low rain, but plants and crops are suffering too.
The EDO combines measurements taken on the ground, satellite data and imagery and complex computer modeling to paint a picture of how the territory is coping.
Italy is one of the worst affected by the current ongoing drought, declaring a state of emergency for areas surrounding the River Po, which accounts for more than a third of the country’s agricultural production.
France has set up a crisis team to deal with its worst drought on record
that has left parched villages without safe drinking water and farmers warning of a milk shortage in winter.
Large areas of Romania, Hungary and Ukraine are also withering, and tinderbox conditions are fuelling wildfires in Spain and Portugal.
The growing lack of water in reservoirs, rivers and stored underground means the territory now needs higher than normal rain to compensate, Toreti said.
The amount of land in drought is expected to creep up further still. “We have estimated a worsening of the situation in most of Europe,” Toreti said.
Climate breakdown is making drought in the Mediterranean more severe and more likely, although it is not to blame for all droughts globally.
Causes of drought are complex, but climate change affects it in two key ways. It concentrates rainfall into shorter and more intense bursts, making it harder to retain, and brings hotter temperatures which evaporates more water.
July was also globally one of three warmest recorded, close to 0.4 degrees Celsius above the 1991-2020 average, and the sixth-hottest July in Europe, the EU’s climate monitoring agency Copernicus said.
Spain, France and the United Kingdom experienced at least one day over 40 degrees Celsius last month. In the UK, temperatures climbed to over over 40 degrees Celsius (104.5 degrees Fahrenheit) on July 19 with the English village of Coningsby recording 40.3C for the first time ever.
Meanwhile, Spain reported its hottest July in over 60 years on Monday.
The new data comes as the world grapples with a food crisis Extreme weather and supply chain issues have worsened the crisis and are likely to persist for some time.