SEOUL, South Korea (Dispatches) — North Korea has tested parts of its biggest intercontinental ballistic missile in two recent launches, the U.S. and South Korean militaries said, a suggestion it is likely to fire that weapon soon to put a spy satellite into orbit in what would be its most significant provocation in years.
On Friday, North Korean state media said Kim visited the country’s satellite launch facility and ordered officials to modernize and expand it to fire a variety of rockets. Earlier this week, he said that North Korea needs reconnaissance satellites to monitor “the aggression troops of the U.S. imperialism and its vassal forces.”
North Korea conducted two successful satellite launches from the Sohae Satellite Launching Ground in the northwest in 2012 and 2016. It said they were observation satellites under its peaceful space development program, but outside experts said they were designed to spy on rivals, though there is no evidence that the satellites ever transmitted images.
Experts say North Korea could launch a spy satellite ahead of a major political anniversary in April — the 110th birthday of state founder Kim Il Sung, the late grandfather of Kim Jong Un.
Jung, the analyst, said he thinks the launch will likely come in early May, just before a new South Korean president takes office later that month.
Kirby said the U.S. military ordered “enhanced readiness” among its ballistic missile defense forces in the region and intensified surveillance activities off the Korean Peninsula’s west coast.
The launch, if carried out, would be North Korea’s most serious provocative act since its three ICBM tests in 2017.
South Korea detected two ballistic launches last week. North Korea later said it was testing cameras and other systems to be installed on a spy satellite but didn’t disclose what missiles or rockets it used.
After analyzing the launches, the U.S. and South Korean militaries concluded they involved an ICBM system under development that North Korea first unveiled during a military parade in October 2020.
“The purpose of these tests, which did not demonstrate ICBM range, was likely to evaluate this new system before conducting a test at full range in the future, potentially disguised as a space launch,” Pentagon press secretary John Kirby said in a statement Thursday.
The ICBM in focus is the Hwasong-17, North Korea’s biggest missile, which could potentially fly up to 15,000 kilometers (9,320 miles), far enough to strike anywhere in the U.S. and beyond. The 25-meter (82-foot) missile, which was shown again at a defense exhibition in North Korea’s capital, Pyongyang, last year, has yet to be test-launched.
North Korea has already demonstrated the potential to reach the U.S. mainland with flight tests of other ICBMs, the Hwasong-14 and Hwasong-15, in 2017. Some analysts say developing a larger missile could mean the country is trying to arm its long-range weapons with multiple warheads to overcome missile defense systems.
In 2018, North Korea unilaterally suspended long-range and nuclear tests before it entered now-dormant denuclearization talks with the United States. The talks collapsed in 2019 due to disputes over U.S.-led sanctions on the North.