China to Surpass U.S. Economy, Reclaim Global Power Role by 2040, Intel Report Says
WASHINGTON (NEWS WEEK) - China is set to surpass the United States as the world’s largest economy and advance down a path toward reclaiming a global power role within the next two decades, according to a new report by the U.S. Intelligence Community.
The Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) published a 144-page report entitled "Global Trends 2040: A More Contested World” that forecasted future trends that would transform the international community nearly 20 years down the road. Among the central factors used to weigh how the world would change was that of the relationship between its top two powers: Washington and Beijing.
"The United States, along with its longstanding allies, and China will have the greatest influence on global dynamics,” the report stated, "supporting competing visions of the international system and governance that reflect their core interests and ideologies.”
It predicted that the rivalry between the two great powers "will affect most domains, straining and in some cases reshaping existing alliances and international organizations that have underpinned the international order for decades.”
Among the most sizable shifts foreseen in the global order was the transfer of the economic balance power from West to East, with Asian economies gaining more ground.
The report forecast that China would be at the top, increasing its share of the world’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) from 17.9% in 2020 to 22.8% in 2040. The U.S., on the other hand, would see its stake decline in that same period from 24% to 20.8%.
The exact point as to which China would overtake the U.S. in terms of GDP has long been the subject of debate among experts, but some such as the U.K.-based Economics and Business Research and Japan-based Nomura Holdings have said the diverging experiences of the two countries under COVID-19 has accelerated this date to be as early as 2028, or potentially even sooner.
GDP would be just one area in which a country that held the title of top economic power in previous centuries was seen as "reclaiming” a "global power role.”
The Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) published a 144-page report entitled "Global Trends 2040: A More Contested World” that forecasted future trends that would transform the international community nearly 20 years down the road. Among the central factors used to weigh how the world would change was that of the relationship between its top two powers: Washington and Beijing.
"The United States, along with its longstanding allies, and China will have the greatest influence on global dynamics,” the report stated, "supporting competing visions of the international system and governance that reflect their core interests and ideologies.”
It predicted that the rivalry between the two great powers "will affect most domains, straining and in some cases reshaping existing alliances and international organizations that have underpinned the international order for decades.”
Among the most sizable shifts foreseen in the global order was the transfer of the economic balance power from West to East, with Asian economies gaining more ground.
The report forecast that China would be at the top, increasing its share of the world’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) from 17.9% in 2020 to 22.8% in 2040. The U.S., on the other hand, would see its stake decline in that same period from 24% to 20.8%.
The exact point as to which China would overtake the U.S. in terms of GDP has long been the subject of debate among experts, but some such as the U.K.-based Economics and Business Research and Japan-based Nomura Holdings have said the diverging experiences of the two countries under COVID-19 has accelerated this date to be as early as 2028, or potentially even sooner.
GDP would be just one area in which a country that held the title of top economic power in previous centuries was seen as "reclaiming” a "global power role.”