LONDON (Bloomberg) - The Covid-19 pandemic will produce lasting shifts to global growth, pushing China even more to the forefront.
The proportion of worldwide growth coming from China is expected to increase from 26.8% in 2021 to 27.7% in 2025, according to Bloomberg calculations using International Monetary Fund data.
That’s more than 15 and 17 percentage points, respectively, higher than the U.S share of expected global output. India, Germany and Indonesia round out the top five largest growth engines, next year.
The fund now forecasts world gross domestic product to shrink 4.4% this year, an improvement from the 4.9% drop seen in June, according to the latest World Economic Outlook released this week. Next year, the IMF sees growth of 5.2%.
The IMF estimates China will grow by 8.2% next year, down a full percentage point from the IMF’s April estimate but strong enough to account for more than one-quarter of global growth. The U.S. is expected to rally to a 3.1% increase which will account for 11.6% of global growth in 2021 in purchasing power parity terms.
By 2025, the cumulative loss in output relative to the pre-pandemic projected path is projected to grow to $28 trillion.