WASHINGTON (Dispatches) -- The Donald Trump administration conducted a preliminary internal assessment of its Iran "maximum pressure” policy this month and determined that it is not working, according to a new report.
Such an assessment could drive administration efforts to try to provoke Iran to leave the nuclear deal, possibly by urging a potential inspections crisis at the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), some experts said.
"So far, there is little evidence that the administration is meeting any of its possible goals,” the International Crisis Group writes in the new report, "On Thin Ice,” on the third anniversary of the Iran nuclear deal.
"A preliminary internal assessment by the administration described to Crisis Group purportedly concludes that the U.S. approach has yet to curb Iran’s behavior or entice Tehran back to the negotiating table,” the ICG report says, citing in a footnote an interview conducted by the group with a senior U.S. administration official this month.
The reported Trump administration assessment that Iran may be able to wait out its maximum pressure campaign may convince administration officials that they need more European buy-in to the policy to succeed, said Ali Vaez, director of the ICG Iran Project and co-author of the report. But Europe is currently trying to entice Iran to stick with the nuclear deal after the U.S. exit last year and reimposition of harsh sanctions on Iran's oil and banking sectors.
"If you look at the range of ultimate objectives different people (in the administration) have in mind, from protests that pose an existential threat to the system, to change of behavior, to the Iranians coming back to the negotiating table, none of that is happening,” Vaez told Al-Monitor in an interview.
In short, the policy is not working, he said.
Some members of the Trump administration may be trying to provoke some kind of crisis between the IAEA and Iran in order to get Iran to leave the deal, said former U.S. Iran nuclear negotiator Richard Nephew.
"Everyone (in the Trump administration) is upset that the Iranians keep being able to cite that the IAEA has said once again they are in full compliance,” Nephew, now with Columbia University, told Al-Monitor.
Some members of the Trump administration such as hawkish national security advisor John Bolton very much want the Iranians to withdraw, Nephew said. "Part of this crew truly wants the crisis.”
"So probably the objective here, … especially with what Bolton is allegedly doing to prompt an inspection crisis, is to try to put the burden of blame around Iran’s neck,” Vaez said. "Basically, if you can't convince others that the JCPOA is dead, try to persuade them that the deal is already defunct as Iran is violating it by denying access to ‘suspect’ sites.”
Any effort by the Trump administration to try to politicize the IAEA inspections process would be deeply troubling, said Kelsey Davenport of the Arms Control Association.
"The IAEA clearly states that inspectors have had access to all the sites in Iran they have requested to visit,” Davenport told Al-Monitor.