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News ID: 42832
Publish Date : 13 August 2017 - 20:24

Why Is U.S. Dollar Falling?


LONDON (Dispatches) - The U.S. dollar, long a symbol of American economic might, has fallen steadily this year.
The value of the dollar index, which tracks the dollar against six major global currencies, has fallen about 10% since January.
It has pushed lower, even as demand for other safe-haven assets - typically a category that includes the U.S. dollar - rose amid sabre-rattling between the U.S. and North Korea.
The dollar, which surged in 2014 as the U.S. economy gained strength, is hardly in danger territory. The index is running just a bit lower than it was a year ago.
But key U.S. economic data was weaker last year. So what's behind this year's decline?
Things Are Looking Up in Europe.
In some ways, this is a good news story, driven by a better economy in Europe.
The euro lost ground against the dollar in 2014, when central bankers adopted a stimulus program, while the U.S. started to move away from stimulus policies.
Now, as the Eurozone economy improves and the European Central Bank eyes an end to the stimulus, the currencies are starting to move closer together. The election of pro-EU Emmanuel Macron in France in June contributed to confidence in the Euro.
The Euro's gain is the dollar's loss. A Euro is now worth more than $1.17, up more than 10 cents since the end of last year.

The dollar has lost ground against many other currencies, including the Japanese Yen, the Mexican peso and the Swedish Krona. Even the British pound, which plunged after the Brexit vote, has regained some of its power against the dollar in recent months.
"This type of broad based decline shows you that it's really people moving away from the dollar, rather than just moving towards these other currencies," says Sameer Samana, a global quantitative and technical strategist at Wells Fargo based in St. Louis, Missouri.
Analysts trace the dollar's surge in the final months of 2016 to his win, which fuelled expectations of tax cuts or infrastructure investment - spending expected to drive demand for the dollar.
Now they say the retreat shows traders recalculating, as Trump's economic agenda stalls.
An ongoing investigation into ties between Russia and the Trump campaign has cast a shadow over his administration. And alarm over Trump's erratic statements and foreign policy clashes - including with North Korea this week - has also increased.
Rising interest rates are traditionally linked to stronger currencies, since higher rates attract investment.
The U.S. central bank has raised interest rates four times since December 2015, and conventional wisdom calls for another in December. But Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said recently that even supposing future hikes, interest rates are likely to remain historically low for some time.
Her caution in part reflects American economic growth that remains humdrum, with inflation and wage growth lagging.
It's tough to know where the dollar is headed next, since at the moment it's neither strongly over- or under-valued, says Jeffrey Frankel, a professor of economics at the Harvard Kennedy School.
Richard Marston, a professor of finance at the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton Business School, says he doesn't read too much into the decline, pointing to U.S. stocks over the same period, which soared to new records.
"It's not a question of confidence in the U.S. and the U.S. government because that would also affect the equity markets," he says.
But Mr Frieden says he thinks there is a risk of a free-fall, given disarray in Washington and uncertainty about the Federal Reserve. Ms Yellen's term ends in February and it's not clear whom Trump will name to replace her.
But that forecast was confounded when investors flocked to the dollar during the economic turmoil of 2008 - even though America was the source of many of the problems.
Trump isn't worried either. In a recent interview with the Wall Street Journal, Trump said he liked a dollar that's "not too strong".
US firms with global operations also get a boost to their bottom line, as the business overseas becomes more valuable.
Eventually, economic theory predicts a cycle, as more expensive foreign goods increase prices and inflation in the U.S., prompting the Fed to raise rates - which ultimately boosts the dollar.